Hold the (French) Presses!

"TheRealBicycleBuck" (therealbicyclebuck) 05/02/2020 at 12:41 • Filed to: None

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Foreword : I know this is a long post. I tried to slim it down, but it’s really hard to do that without leaving out important details. This post  was prompted by my daughter telling me that I need to stop using a French press for making my coffee. If you want to jump to the point, scroll down to the last paragraph. If you’d like to see a little more in-depth analysis of the sensationalist headlines, keep reading.

You may have seen !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! of the !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! about coffee brewed in a F rench press being bad for you. Let’s take a look at the !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! and see what they really said.

We all know how academic work is often misinterpreted and how lazy, sensationalist journalism can be misleading. There’s also some culpability on the part of the authors in this one. Let’s look at their “aim” and their conclusions in the abstract section of the paper.

Abstract

Aim : The aim of this study was to investigate whether the coffee brewing method is associated with any death and cardiovascular mortality, beyond the contribution from major cardiovascular risk factors.

Methods : (ski pped for now)

Conclusion : Unfiltered brew was associated with higher mortality than filtered brew, and filtered brew was associated with lower mortality than no coffee consumption.

The authors clearly went for the click-bait conclusion by leaving out a couple of key pieces of information. Before we get to that, let’s talk about their methods. T he study is based on a 20-year time period , using participants in a Norwe gian cardiovascular survey. The length of the study is good, but having participants all of one nationality is not so good, especially in such a small population (< 5 million) who are very homogeneous ( !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! ). Surveys are always suspect because people are really, really bad at self-reporting.

As an example, let’s look at one of the central questions of this study : “How many cups of coffee do you usually drink daily?” (taken directly from their questionnaire). This simple question is really quite complicated. The obvious problem is h ow big of a cup are they asking about. A “cup” of coffee isn’t a standardized measure. In the U.S., a cup is 240ml, in the metric world, a cup is 250ml. That says nothing about what people call a cup. My preferred coffee “ cup” actually holds 20 oz, 2.5 times the U.S. measured cup and 2.4 times a metric cup. Yet, if you asked me   about it without clarifying the actual amount, I would probably say I have one cup of coffee a day.

Within the paper, they list a whole host of confounding variables, only some of which they could control in the statistical analysis.

Confounding variables

The following variables were included in the analysis as potential confounders: age, number of cigarettes/d, total cholesterol, triglycerides, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, education, and year of examination. Educational length comprised nine categories: <7 years, 7–9 years, ....17–18 years, and > 18 years; and physical activity was >= 1 hour vigorous physical activity per week or walking around, cycling, or other activity for at least four hours a week.

They didn’t control for all of the confounding variables:   “We adjusted the mean values and percentages across the coffee categories for age and sex.”  

This alone doesn’t invalidate their study! This is a normal and widely accepted statistical procedure which helps reduce variability within a test group. The authors used this procedure on age and sex, but did not do that for the other potential confounding factors.

Alright, there’s a lot to unpack here and I don’t want to lose you without getting to the point. Let’s look at two tables within the paper. The first, Table 2, shows “Hazard Ratios” for three specific types and “any” type of death. The Hazard Ratio (HR) is a measure of how many people died of the specific death types compared to “any” death. That means the “any” death HR is 1. This is the reference category and shows up in the table as “Ref” instead of a number. Any number less than 1 means that fewer people in that category died as compared to the control.

The only category that has a HR ratio that is not lower than the reference is unfiltered coffee drinkers who died of Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD). Even so, they have the same HR as non-coffee drinkers who died from anything except Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) or Stroke.

This, of course, is odd. Why would unfiltered coffee drinkers have the same HR ratio as non-coffee drinkers? The logical thing to do is try to unpack the numbers and figure out why! So, that’s what they did. I present Table 3:

To create this table, the authors aggregated the participants into two groups, those 60 years old and older, and those younger than 60. This was their age at the beginning of the study period, 20 years ago. Note that only men, aged 60 and older, who drank either unfiltered coffee or both filtered and unfiltered, died more frequently of CVD. Those HR numbers are important - they mean that these two groups of coffee drinkers died either 5% or 19% more frequently than people 60 years or older died of any other cause.

To make a really long story short, if you’re a man who is 60 years or older, perhaps you should give up drinking unfiltered (french brewed or percolated) coffee. It might, all other confounding factors ignored, lower your risk of dying from cardivascular disease.

Phyrxes once again has a wagon! > TheRealBicycleBuck 05/02/2020 at 12:44

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As someone who drinks quite a few “cups” of coffee from a French Press this is interesting but as I’m not on the age demographic *cheers. *

LastFirstMI is my name > TheRealBicycleBuck 05/02/2020 at 12:56

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Looking at these tables, it makes me think this is something of a “p fishing” study. Make enough subgroups, and you’re likely to find something “significant” just out of chance. Also, the 95% CI overlap 1.0 so not very convincing. Most importantly I don’t want to change my mind so I’m going to ignore their findings, because that’s how science really works

dumpsterfire! > TheRealBicycleBuck 05/02/2020 at 12:58

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Unf ortunately, French press allows some of those exquisite oils through, and will then raise your cholesterol ~5% compared to paper filtered java . I've got so many other things trying to slowly kill me, I'm not going to sacrifice my French press.

Cash Rewards > TheRealBicycleBuck 05/02/2020 at 13:03

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Where does espresso fit in?

Nom De Plume > TheRealBicycleBuck 05/02/2020 at 13:07

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We all know decaf is what kills. Followed shortly by Starbucks decaf* and then everything else they make.

*Has more caffeine than 7 cups of homemade caffeinated coffee.

TheRealBicycleBuck > Cash Rewards 05/02/2020 at 13:08

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Any coffee  made without a paper filter is in the unfiltered group. That includes espresso.

TheRealBicycleBuck > Nom De Plume 05/02/2020 at 13:09

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Wait, what? You’ll need to provide a source for that caffeine claim.

whatisthatsound > TheRealBicycleBuck 05/02/2020 at 13:30

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I'm only drinking 2 or 3 a day. Worth it

gettingoldercarguy > TheRealBicycleBuck 05/02/2020 at 13:31

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Yet another group of assholes trying to tell me that their filtered product is safer.

Fuck that.  French press or death.

WilliamsSW > Nom De Plume 05/02/2020 at 13:35

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Not only that, but a decaf death is extremely painful. The headaches alone can kill you.

lone_liberal > TheRealBicycleBuck 05/02/2020 at 13:36

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Did they specify what kind of filter they assumed? A paper filter and a metal filter perform differently with the metal allowing more particulates and oils to flow through.

DipodomysDeserti > TheRealBicycleBuck 05/02/2020 at 13:38

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Very interesting. There’s a whole bunch of toxic stuff in plants, so it makes sense . I remember a chem lab back in the day where we isolated caffein from tea leaves. We had pure caffein as a control for our ( I think) nMR I or chromatography measurements, and had enough reagent to give everyone in the lab a heart attack.

I only use a french press. I’ve had to cut back on coffee as I’ve been noticing some psycho and physiological affects being amplified with my current stress levels. My wife got me a weird Japanese vacuum brewer that I should probably use more regularly as it has a filter.

DC3 LS, Fuck Hyundai, now and forever > TheRealBicycleBuck 05/02/2020 at 13:43

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Follow the ways of Taleb and reject mainstream statistics.

Video not related to anything specific from Taleb, but I couldn’t find his more plain language article about “p-value hacking” although here’s his more technical one.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf

Cé hé sin > TheRealBicycleBuck 05/02/2020 at 14:23

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( 77% of Norwegian birth ).

That’s a low percentage, suggesting that 23% were born elsewhere.

TheRealBicycleBuck > lone_liberal 05/02/2020 at 16:07

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They specify a paper filter. 

TheRealBicycleBuck > Cé hé sin 05/02/2020 at 16:08

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To clarify, they really mean of Norwegian descent.

Even more interesting is that n umber reflects the current population. When the study started, the percentage was higher. Recent immigration has changed the demographics.

Nom De Plume > TheRealBicycleBuck 05/02/2020 at 16:21

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I have to imagine that they have gone to some lengths to obscure finding that published test. They didn’t care for it very much at the time and made sure i t got pinned down to just one chain.  Admittedly much could have changed since as they continue to make their products more attractive to customers using a variety of techniques.

TheRealBicycleBuck > DipodomysDeserti 05/02/2020 at 16:24

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Sometimes I really miss working in a lab. When I worked in a chemical plant, I was responsible for QA on all raw materials entering the plant. I did a lot of gas and liquid chromatography. I was learning the environmental side of the lab when I finally quit so I could focus on my last year of college.

That experience helped me land a job in a medical research lab after college. We had this ancient flame spectrophotometer which we used to measure the chemical composition of bone samples. We also were one of the few labs in the world using a sledge microtome to cut bone samples thin enough to study them through a normal light microscope. After I had a couple of years experience, my boss sent me to another lab to train another team who were doing studies similar to ours.

Now I rock a keyboard most of the time. 

TheRealBicycleBuck > Nom De Plume 05/02/2020 at 16:30

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I’m calling BS on that claim. I found a reference for you: https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/caffeine-in-decaf#caffeine-content

Starbucks decaf coffee was found to have 20mg of caffeine compared to 188 mg in a cup of regular coffee. The Medline articles  contains links to the original research. 

DipodomysDeserti > TheRealBicycleBuck 05/02/2020 at 17:44

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I’ve never worked in a lab, but did volunteer in a histology lab at the VA hospital when I was in high school. A bit different type of lab. The people there were very strange individuals.

Nom De Plume > TheRealBicycleBuck 05/02/2020 at 17:55

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Aha, so a single test that showed no difference from expected values in any decaff specifically mentioning SB . Bet that was a hard toilsome search hidden in the bowels of the internet in the same place as numerous other suppressed by international corporation inconvenient truths.

Cash Rewards > TheRealBicycleBuck 05/02/2020 at 18:56

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That's not ideal, for sure. What is extracted under pressure for 20-30 seconds is drastically different than what's extracted in 2 minutes just sitting there. 

TheRealBicycleBuck > DipodomysDeserti 05/02/2020 at 19:26

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Are you trying to say something? :)

I t does take a certain mindset to be a histologist. Each specialty has its own quirks. I have to say, though, the histologist that worked down the hall from our lab was able to make some amazing soft tissue casts. It was in his lab that I first saw a set of lungs being cast. Actually, it was two sets - one normal, one a smoker’s. Both of the individuals were of the same sex, weight, and age when they passed. The smoker’s lungs were noticeably smaller and filled with gray and black areas from the tar in the cigarettes . Nasty.

A chemical company’s labs are focused on materials testing, so they are more of a production environment. They can also have a lot of nasty chemicals in them, either as part of the materials they are testing or as a reagent for processing other chemicals. One of my uncles worked for a company that dealt with rare earths and he regularly used perchloric acid in his lab. That’s something I’m glad I never had to mess with.

Every chemical company also has an environmental lab which is responsible for testing in and around the plant to make sure they stay legal. It’s stuff you would be familiar with. For example, the treatment ponds which catch rainwater that falls on the plant are tested for clarity, total suspended solids, oxygen, trace amounts of the chemicals being produced at the plant, etc. Some plants even have air quality stations and noise stations. Everything is documented multiple times a day and all the records have to be kept so they can be in compliance with the law and, in the case of a leak, narrow down  the probable location. It’s decent work that pays a lot better than going into a research lab or doing environmental work. I’ve done all three and they all have their advantages.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > TheRealBicycleBuck 05/02/2020 at 19:47

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I’m not sure which thread to follow on these. Being a coffee fan, I’m very interested in it all, but there is so much conflict in the study conclusions.

NEJM had one awhile back that was tracking the “level of roast” and their data clearly said dark-roast, espresso was far better from a health perspective than a light roast filtered coffee— mainly because the light roast had far fewer anti-oxidants was their theory.

It would be nice to see of Survey of Research Results across multiple studies to see if any clear patterns emerge.

Thanks for posting.  Fascinating stuff.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > TheRealBicycleBuck 05/02/2020 at 19:49

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MS and Alzheimers data is also weird with The Nordic People.  And, their COVID mortality is much lower.  Go figure.

TheRealBicycleBuck > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 05/02/2020 at 20:07

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You’re in luck! This paper cites six different meta-analyses :

“ Relevant meta-analyses on the same issue have resulted in estimates indicating no increased risk, U-shaped risk curves, or an inverse association.”

Yeah, that’s the bad part - the papers all came to different conclusions . I haven’t read any of them, so I can’t say anything about the studies or their results.

H ere are the papers they are referencing:

15. Crippa A, Discacciati A, Larsson SC, et al. Coffee consumption and mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer: a dose-response meta-analysis. Am J Epidemiol 2014; 180(8): 763–775.

16. Malerba S, Turati F, Galeone C, et al. A meta-analysis of prospective studies of coffee consumption and mortality for all causes, cancers and cardiovascular diseases. Eur J Epidemiol 2013; 28: 527–539.

17. Ding M, Bhupathiraju SN, Satija A, et al. Long-term coffee consumption and risk of cardiovascular disease. A systematic review and a dose-response meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. Circulation 2014; 129: 643–659.

18. Grosso G, Micek A, Godos J, et al. Coffee consumption and risk of all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality in smokers and non-smokers: a dose-response metaanalysis. Eur J Epidemiol 2016; 31: 1191–1205.

19. Sofi F, Conti AA, Gori AM, et al. Coffee consumption and risk of coronary heart disease: a meta-analysis. Nutr Metabolism Cardiovasc Dis 2007; 17: 209–223.

20. Wu J-n, Ho SC, Zhou C, et al. Coffee consumption and risk of coronary heart diseases: a meta-analysis of 21 prospective cohort studies. Int J Cardiol 2009; 137: 216–225.

ClassicDatsunDebate > TheRealBicycleBuck 05/03/2020 at 12:01

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I took survey design in my stats class as part of marketing management. Ever since then, I’m a nazi for survey questions. My coworkers think I’m being pedantic but question design and how you measure/order/group can make a huge difference in the conclusions you make from the data. I even find professional pollsters get it wrong quite often.    And in that lies the root cause of most debate about the conclusions of research studies.

TheRealBicycleBuck > ClassicDatsunDebate 05/03/2020 at 12:21

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This is a common problem. Software and hardware advances have put tools into the hands of amateurs who don’t understand how to use them properly and can’t see the mistakes they are making. This holds true for survey software , statistical packages, mapping tools, and even drones. 

Loupdeloup > TheRealBicycleBuck 05/03/2020 at 13:24

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Have been drinking French press dark roast coffee since I was six!

I am sixty four and in perfect health, no heart problems, in fact no sickness what so ever, I drink at least two cups a day and have smoked for forty plus years and still do! I actually believe that these two items plus marijuana which I have been inhaling since I was twenty are the secret to my amazing health and overall condition!

So there!!!

TheRealBicycleBuck > Loupdeloup 05/03/2020 at 13:49

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Like I said, there are some problems with this study!

I’m glad that despite your bad habits, you’re still around! ;)

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > Nom De Plume 05/03/2020 at 21:35

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Not so much for starbucks, but I have heard multiple places that at a resturant after breakfast, regardless of what you ask, you’re getting regular.

ttyymmnn > TheRealBicycleBuck 05/04/2020 at 09:20

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“I don’t know what’s gonna happen, but I wanna have my kicks before the whole shithouse goes up in flames. ”

– Jim Morrison

At a certain point, you have to ask yourself if drinking French press or percolated coffee makes your life enjoyable. Asceticism , while perhaps life-lengthening, doesn’t seem like much fun. 

TheRealBicycleBuck > ttyymmnn 05/04/2020 at 10:06

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It’s all about risk versus reward. Well, that and whether or not this study really proves anything. There were confounding variables that weren’t controlled. Perhaps people over 60 drinking French press coffee also have a propensity for bungee jumping and that drove the higher mortality rate. We just don’t know.

I spent some time debunking Sudden Infant Death Syndrome not long after our daughter was born. I was using numbers appropriate for the time, but let’s see what the latest numbers are. The SIDS rate in 2018 was roughly 35.4 per 100,000 , a 0.035 % chance of death for any infant. The Back to Sleep campaign claims to have cut that risk in half. So, from 0.035 % to 0.018 % chance of death from SIDS. Unfortunately, our daughter REFUSED to sleep on her back. So, despite the warnings and my mother-in-law’s hounding - we put her on her tummy and enjoyed some rest.

To get my mother-in-law off my back, I brought up some of the other statistics. Eight of th e ten leading causes of infant mortality are related to congenital problems or complications with the birth. We had already beaten those odds. The other two were SIDS and accidental injury, which just happen to have very similar rates. Unintentional injury rates are 30.8 per 100,000 or a 0.031% chance of death. That happens to include motor vehicle accidents, cuts, drowning, falling, fire, firearms, death by any other kind of machinery, poisoning, overexertion (?), suffocation (which happens to be included in the SIDS counts), adverse effects of drugs, and “unspecified.” That’s a lot of stuff that could happen, and many of them could be caused by a lack of attention caused by a lack of sleep. By my reasoning, it’s better to take the  small risk of SIDS than to increase the other possible risks by not getting enough sleep.

ttyymmnn > TheRealBicycleBuck 05/04/2020 at 10:12

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I’m reminded of something Jonathan Miller said. When Dick Cavett told Miller that smoking would kill him, Miller took a luxuriant drag  from his cigarette and replied, “Yes, but I’m fairly certain this particular one won’t.”

Despite all the warnings, we coslept with our first. No way we were doing that either twins! Everybody survived.